Siena College (9/30-10/5, likely voters):
SD-37
Suzi Oppenheimer (D-inc): 61
Liz Feld (R): 24
(MoE: ±4.9%)
SD-55
David Nachbar (D): 21
James Alesi (R-inc): 62
(MoE: ±4.8%)
SD-58
William Stachowski (D-inc): 36
Dennis Delano (R): 49
(MoE: ±4.6%)
SD-59
Kathy Konst (D): 33
Dale Volker (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Siena has released a second batch of polls of contested New York Senate races. The first batch was a few weeks ago, and pointed to a likely Democratic pickup and another tied race, enough to flip control of the Senate to the Democrats (who are currently down 31-29 with 2 vacancies).
Unfortunately, this round of polling shows a fly in the ointment that wasn’t apparent before: incumbent Democrat William Stachowski from 55th District in Buffalo’s blue-collar suburbs (another long-term presence, in office since 1981) is trailing Dennis Delano, and by a substantial margin. (Delano, a Buffalo police detective, is apparently a local law enforcement celebrity.) If this seat goes down, the possibility of a tied Senate looms large.
Other polls in this race include two GOP-held upstate seats where the Democratic candidates (the highly-touted David Nachbar, and Kathy Konst, who bailed out of the NY-26 primary to run for state senate instead) have uphill climbs, and a seat in Westchester County where the Democratic incumbent looks to hang on easily. Several other closely contested races that are promising for the Dems (Padavan/Gennaro in SD-11 and Barber/Seward in SD-51) remain unpolled, so the quest to flip the New York state senate remains in limbo.